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Friday May 16th, 2007
Greetings and welcome!
I am getting an early start today, so I am not sure what kind
of a morning it is. I will go with dark right now. That much
I am sure of. The deal is, if I work hard and get ahead, I might
get a few hours to work outside today. Since it is supposed to
be 70, I am motivated. The top of the list involves pulling the
fishing boat out of storage and giving it some attention. As
soon as I summerize and move the snowmobiles out of the way I
can do that.
The guiding thought is that it is about time to hit some of
my favorite bass and bluegill lakes before the lilies come in
too strong. Both species of fish will be spawning over the course
of the next month, and the fishing can get pretty good when you
catch it right. I have a few spots that I know I can hook into
20+ inch bass pretty regularly, and that is some fun fishing.
We have a late spring, but the sun is warming up those lakes.
The weather this weekend is an interesting story. Overall
it doesn't look too bad. There is a chance of showers daily,
but nothing significant. The story is that we are expecting a
low pressure area to pass through the area today and move off
to the east. It will be weak and disorganized as it passes us,
but will strengthen as it heads toward Hudson Bay. The end result
will be a chance of showers here and there as areas of disturbed
weather rotate around the periphery of the storm. As the weekend
progresses the cause of the instability showers changes a little,
but with the same results. We are not talking about significant
rain, but rather the chance of a scattered shower with less than
a tenth of an inch in 6 hours.
Friday afternoon and Friday night bring the best chance for
precip as the low passes, but the TV weather animation didn't
think much of it, showing <0.10" for each . Saturday
the atmosphere will have some instability, and a sunny day could
bring a passing afternoon shower or maybe even a T-storm if it
gets going enough. Sunday a difference in air mass temps could
bring a little more instability as the low continues east.
More of interest to me was the wind forecast. Saturday the
NWS is looking for 10-18mph winds gusting to 26, and Saturday
night knocks about 4mph off of those numbers. None of my forecast
maps supported big winds, so I am not so sure.
So, let's get to the point.. Today we are looking for increasing
clouds and a high of 70. Later today and tonight we are up to
a 50% chance of rain, most likely in the form of scattered showers.
Saturday should be mostly cloudy and a high of 65, with the chance
of some wind. There is a 40% chance of a passing shower, and
if a sunny day destabilizes the atmosphere enough, maybe we could
see an afternoon T-storm. Saturday night we are looking at a
20% chance of rain early, a low of 39, and maybe some wind. Sunday
should bring mixed sun and clouds and a high of about 60. Some
forecasts again have a slight chance of a shower Sunday afternoon.
This weekend looks like a busy one on the Peshtigo River.
The price of a rafting trip falls from $45 to $25 this weekend,
and usually it is a busy weekend. The water has continued to
fall this week and is now at about a +3 or +4". That is
not bad at all. I am looking forward to seeing a lot of old friends
again as they return to paddle.
I am not sure what to think about the weekend water levels.
The Peshtigo looks like it is stabilizing at about +4. A river
that has an adjoining watershed that I use as a crystal ball
to predict Pesh levels really took a digger, dropping from 600cfs
to 429 in the past two days. It is dramatic enough that I almost
wonder if a beaver dam is blocking a tributary or something.
My recent visits to the watershed have found it well supplied
with water, so I am not sure what to think.
I have been working hard, so I don't have much of a critter/bugs/spring
report today. I can tell you that the greening has started, and
is getting into the phase where it is visibly different from
day to day. The green explosion is under way. I did spot quite
a few marsh marigolds on a ride this week, along with some deer
and turkeys. A pair of mallards were again spotted in the pond,
and they might be nesting there.
This weekend there is live music Saturday night at the Curve
Inn with the Copperhead band. They brought back rave reviews
when they played there a few weeks ago. Tom the DJ is at Rapids
Resort Saturday night as well, keeping the fun rolling for all
of the campers, rafters, and bar visitors.
There are a lot of events coming up next weekend. I have been
trying to stay on top of it, and the list in the right hand column
is getting long. I need to verify the tractor pulls and the Town
of Stephenson events, and should be able to do so by my next
report.
There was a pretty good sell off in the gas futures on the
NYMEX yesterday. The price of June gas tanked from about $3.25
to about $3.09 before recovering back to about $3.17 yesterday
afternoon. The response locally was that gas fell a dime to $3.78.
My hope is that this is the first rumblings of institutional
investors locking in profits and exiting the market after the
big run up to Memorial Day weekend and the holy grail of $4 a
gallon. There is downward pressure on options prices in July.
We are probably close to a peak barring some news that roils
the markets again. The hope is that now the big hedge funds and
mutual funds will start selling off contracts to lock in profits,
sending prices down. Sometimes there is a stampede to not be
the last one out, and prices can tumble. That is my wish anyway.
That is about it from here. Have a good weekend and thank
you for visiting!
RJB
Wednesday May 14th,
2008
Greetings and welcome!
My apologies for being
late today. Life is pretty hectic at the moment. I am officially
buried in work. Prosperity is a good thing, it just has me running
a little behind.
We had a very nice day
yesterday when the sun came out for a while and the temps went
just above 60. The radar said that it rained at one point, but
it was just big dark cloud here on the ground.
We did a sunset campfire
yesterday that was most enjoyable. Later at night the critters
were moving around pretty good, and at one point the coyotes
were within about 100 yards. I went inside to get the video camera
to try and catch their yelps, but the commotion of me moving
around had quieted things down by the time that I returned.
We are are expecting a
little rain tonight, but not much more. A weak cold front passed
our way and brought showers and storms. We had a few rumbles
earlier, and then between 7 and 9 tonight there was some heavier
rain and some lightning and thunder. I will estimate the rain
so far at about a half inch, maybe a little more.
Spring continues it's slow
progression. Some of the aspen family are starting to get first
leaves, but most hardwoods remain bare. I think that we are officially
late with the green explosion this year. I did see my first trillium
over the weekend, along with some tiny cloverleaf shaped blue
and white flowers.
The bugs have not been
too bad. The wood ticks are out and in business, but the mosquito
remains rare. Today the gnats were getting pesky. So far (thankfully)
that has been about it for bugs to date.
Here are a few snapshots
from around the yard..
These sprouts will be trilliums
and wild strawberries in about a week or two
The first cherry blooms
It is hard to believe that
this landscape will be waist high in ferns and foliage in a month
This snapshot shows that
a lot of the shrubs and ground foliage has yet to come in
This Momma robin made a
nest about 30' from the front door
We have had a great spring
for whitewater rafting. The Peshtigo River peaked at +33 a few
weeks ago and has been slow to fall back to normal levels. It
is getting closer, and is currently running at a +5.
This weekend the price
of rafting falls dramatically. In spring when extra guides and
gear are needed due to high water and cold weather, rafting is
$45. On May 15th, the price falls to just $25. Many people, including
myself in the old days, raft this weekend in hopes of catching
spring water at a summer price. This year that will actually
work out. It won't be huge like two weeks ago, but it will be
above zero, and that is a good start.
Gas prices have not hit
$4 up here yet, but they are getting close. It was at $3.88 here
in Silver Cliff tonight. The Milwaukee fish wrap said that some
of you were paying $4 or $4.05 a gallon.
The feds tried to do a
little something about it this week, but didn't get anywhere.
The repubs tried to introduce a bill to open up areas of the
ANWR and other domestic sources to oil production. The dems continued
to block the 60 year supply of oil that we have here on principal,
and chose the path that we are on now as acceptable.
Also attempted was to have
the US stop buying the 70,000bpd that it is stocking into the
strategic petroleum reserve. Bush was against that, saying that
we should continue to buy until the last 27 million barrels are
replaced.
The only good news that
I have is that ethanol is falling out of favor. Apparently the
famine and food riots around the world have brought additional
scrutiny to the policy of forcing ethanol on our fuel supply.
It has not held up under scrutiny,and now even some environmental
groups are against the stuff. In spite of the legislative branch
being bought and paid for by the farm and ethanol producer's
lobby, they are actually looking at repealing the ethanol mandate.
How about making it voluntary? If you want to run garbage gas,
you can. Let the consumers and the free market decide.
A couple of guys were arguing
in the bar the other night about gas prices. One blamed Bush.
The other guy pointed out that prices didn't go stupid until
the dems took over both the house and senate two years ago. The
second point is interesting, but it is a lot deeper than any
of that. There are economic factors like the weak dollar driving
absurd amounts of money into commodities. There is also a tremendous
amount of wealth in baby boomer retirement investments, causing
a capitol bubble. Gas and oil are in play, and it is hurting
the economy.
There is also the problem
that the enviros have successfully blocked off almost every major
domestic resource, forcing us to ignore our 60+ year supply,
and import about 3/4 of our oil. Under Clinton, the number of
refineries fell dramatically, often due to new fuel blending
and environmental regulations. There is also a problem with all
of the regional boutique fuels.
The point here is not to
blame the environmentalists and democrats where credit is due.
It is to point out that there are a lot of factors in play. It
probably won't be easy untangling all of that stupidity. The
bubble will burst eventually, but many of those issues will remain.
What is my answer?
1) Tax money
earned speculating in energy markets by non-principals to impede
speculation amplifying normal market movements. This is a big
part of the gas price spike since Katrina.
2) Open domestic
resources including ANWR and the OCS to oil environmentally sustainable
oil production and tap into the 60 years of complete energy independence
already here. With that in place we should not be sending huge
amounts of our wealth to other nations.
3) Permit and
finance the building of at least 12 regional refineries to limit
exposure to events like Katrina hitting our currently 'eggs in
one basket' oil infrastructure located by the Gulf of Mexico.
It would also serve to take the monopoly out of the hands of
the few refiners remaining after the Clinton era.
4) Fix the debt
and deficit and put some meaning behind the dollar again. The
dollar is worthless, therefore it takes more dollars to buy foreign
oil.
5) Force the
environmental lobby to live by the policy they are forcing on
the rest of us, and make them pay for the damage that they do.
If you are against drilling here, find an equal alternative source
or shut up. Likewise, when the green harassment costs 300 million
dollars extra to permit a refinery, there should be a cost associated
with that, not to consumers, but to the people that caused the
expense. If you are against a refinery, fine, you need to find
40,000 of your little green buddies serious enough to swear off
gasoline, and we won't need the refinery. It is time to recognize
hypocrisy and stupidity, even when it hides behind a green mask.
Environmentalism is indeed a noble cause, but there are some
bad people doing otherwise unthinkable stuff, and getting away
with it in the name of the movement.
6) Reform the
EPA, ESA, and the various clean water & clean air acts, and
get a comprehensive environmental policy that does good without
turning us into a third word country. The current policy array
is a broken web. We don't need 50 regional blends of gas, find
a good one and run it nationwide. Likewise, it should not be
a 5-10 year 300 million dollar lawsuit party to get a permit
for a refinery or oil production field.
7) Provide incentives
in the marketplace to have consumers demand, and ultimately manufacturers
offer, more green and energy wise cars and trucks. Start by taking
the ethanol subsidy money and giving consumers a rebate on domestic
made increased efficiency vehicles.
8) Look at methods
of common propulsion on major highways, sort of a high speed
car wash chain, that you can hook onto and shut off your engine
once you are on the highway. A combination of solar and nuke
power can run those cleanly and very sharply reduce fuel consumption
on a national scale.
I can go on for a while,
but I really need to move on. All I am advocating is some common
sense, which barring other factors, would bring oil down to the
30-60 dollar a barrel range, and gas down below $2. Do that,
and I will send the $600 back. The economy will already be booming.
Speaking of booming, I
am a busy little boy these days. Between the web sites, the video
production, the rafting pictures and videos, and all the rest
of the stuff that I juggle, I am finding myself badly buried.
My apologies to everyone. I will catch up.
I saw a new event poster
this week. It was for the Town of Stephenson Memorial Day picnic
and parade. That is coming up Sunday May 25th. There are a few
other activities that day too. Here is the copy n paste from
a previous report..
On the 25th of May we have
the American Legion Memorial Day ceremony and picnic at the Silver
Cliff picnic grounds. On the same day there is a Memorial Day
parade and celebration in Mountain, a VFD fund raiser auction
in Crooked Lake, and the McCaslin Lioness Faire in Lakewood.
A few weeks later the Dusty Trails ATV Club is having their spring
poker run and pig roast on June 14th.
We should add the Lakes Country Sports Show in Lakewood June
28-29, 2008 to that list.
Well, I am off to pull an all nighter.
My video computer is clogged tight and I need to clean it up
to finish production on a few projects. My 3/4 terrabyte storage
array is maxed out, and so is my main raid set up. I have to
find a home for at least 200Gb of video to get back into production.
It takes about 20 minutes to burn a 4Gb data DVD for archiving.
It will be a full night.
Have a good week and thank you for visiting!
RJB
Friday May 9th, 2008
Greetings and welcome!
We have a little bit of
a cloudy day today, and we are looking for a high of 60. There
was a little rain this morning, but it has now passed.
The weekend forecast will
keep us guessing a little, as usual..
There is a decent enough
storm headed toward the southern half of Wisconsin this weekend
and there is a slight chance that some stray showers could come
our way. The NWS put it at 40% Saturday and Sunday, though the
weather animation on TV did not support it that high until Sunday
afternoon. By Sunday night we should see some rain from it as
it inches closer.
I think that more of concern
is that we will see some below normal temps at night. Our normal
high temp is about 65 right now, and we are looking for 60 Saturday
with some sun, and 55 Sunday with some clouds. Of interest to
campers, the NWS is looking for 32 tonight and 37 Saturday night.
The spring green explosion
is in the barrel and ready to go off, but it hasn't yet. There
are fresh little leaves on a lot of the berry bushes and cherry
trees along with most of the hardwoods. The consensus last night
was that the next good rain would bring the foliage out in dramatic
fashion. It is a huge transformation.
The spring isn't lost on
the critters. Every trip away from the house brings sightings,
and often of a species not seen yet this spring. The turkeys
nesting across the road still sound off each time that we open
the door. The ticks are becoming more common.
A passing thought is that
with the foliage not up and the critters active, wildlife sightings
are much easier and more common. In June when the foliage is
full they only have to scamper about 50 feet and they are hidden.
Now you can still see 50-100 yards into the woods.
The Peshtigo River is still
running at nice levels. The gauge this morning was between a
+10 and a +11. Some of you may recall me referring to this as
a Goldilocks level, as in just right. It is big enough to take
a raft or one-man funyak, and the water is exciting, but not
too big for normal people. This weekend is Mother's Day, and
Kosir's has a buy one get one free rafting special for Mom this
weekend. Mom rafts free this weekend with a paid trip.
This week we saw a lot
of e-mail about a trail closure on the Woodland Trails system
down by W. No one got an answer because until about 10 minutes
ago, I didn't have one. Chris tracked it down, and now we know.
The trail on the north side of W that runs from Wheel Inn over
to Crossroads & the BP is closed. You can still get to all
of those places, but you need to take the trails south of W,
about twice the distance. Hopefully that helps.
Speaking of Crossroads,
we did a web site for them recently, and today we are introducing
it to you. It is at www.crosroadsbarandcampground.com . They offer food and drink, a
campground, and several cabins that they rent out. They are on
the ATV and snowmobile trails and right across from the BP on
W & Parkway Rd.
That is about it from here.
Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!
RJB
Over the winter I signed up for a new server
host that lets me do video on the Internet at a reasonable price.
Being the video guy at Kosir's, I have a lot of video production
gear, and want to use it on Internet related projects. Over the
winter I did clips of the snowcross races in Lakewood, and the
ice drag races at Chute Pond. As I mentioned previously, I have
a page set up of (so far) seven rafting videos, and there is
a link to it above on the far right of the whitewater rafting
and paddling section. Look for the big red "New" or
go to www.northerndestinations.com/raftingvideos
. Along the same line, the Peshtigo River Inn and Cramer's Brown Jug have video tours on their
new web sites. There
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