December 3rd, 2009

Greetings and welcome!

I have now migrated over to the snowmobiling page at www.bigsnowpage.com, and this page is going into hibernation until March. I am doing Tue/Thursday updates there for now, and they will increase in frequency when we actually get snow. It is a little different format this year, and you can even comment on articles.

Thank you

RJB

Monday November 23rd, 2009

Greetings and welcome!

It is a foggy morning out again today. It has been foggy at night and in the morning since the weekend started. Today it has been foggy and still is at almost 1pm.

Saturday morning started out cold with the land sugar coated in frost. The fog brought a cold that cut through you even if you were dressed warm. The sun burned off the fog, and the day ended up sunny and in the mid-50s. Sunday was a lot like that but a little cloudier.

Deer hunting has been a little slow, as expected. One neighbor a mile down the road got a buck early. I didn't hear a shot right around here until late afternoon Saturday. That is a sharp contrast to my first deer hunting season (and first ever visit to Silver Cliff) 21 years ago. Back then there was so much shooting opening morning that it was scary.

I did see three deer Saturday night. Quick reactions saved the two in the headlights, but the slow one ran into the side of the truck. Doe! Based on the clean spot on the truck, the doe lead with her nose, and didn't hit hard enough to make a dent, it just rubbed some dirt off about 3" wide and 2' long.

Deer kill registrations have fallen by pretty close to 10% a year for the last 7 years. Here we are in year 8, and things are naturally a little slow. It is going to be like that until the DNR starts managing (or letting us manage..) the major infestation of top level predators like bears and wolves.

We will not have a good deer herd as long as wolf numbers are 6-8x management goals (that are too high anyway), and there are almost as many black bears in Silver Cliff as there were kill tags issued in the whole state last year. The cougars that don't officially exist are probably a factor as well. Cats do breed, and two years ago I saw two different cougars in two different areas of Silver Cliff. Now that there are four top level predators chasing the deer instead of just us, numbers will be down.

As long as I am ticking people off this morning, let's touch on global warming for a second. While none of the MSM is reporting it, it broke over the weekend that someone hacked into a major UK climate research center and posted a lot of their stuff on the Internet. They were under fire for having non-reproducible pro-global warming numbers, and refusing to show their work. Apparently some hacker took their stuff, posted it on the net, and exposed fraud dating back a decade. Visit Wattsupwiththat.com or Vox Day for more.

Bye bye Coca Cola.. Again we go political.. Over the weekend I found out that Coke is a major sponsor of "Hopenhagen". I am not sure when my favorite soft drink started advocating a socialist one world government and the widespread looting and depression of the US economy, but I won't finance it. I am actually quite livid about it. Boycott it is.

If you don't know what I am talking about, you should go and read the proposed Copenhagen framework like I did. While it was primarily written by principals of the WWF and Greenpeace, it is not all about the environment, especially since China & India won't play. This stuff is right out of Austin Powers or something. If we could only get al gore to do that Dr Evil pinky thing.. "Ten Trillion dollars..".

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We have been seeing some nice warm weather over the last week or two. Get it while you can. It looks like winter starts up about Thursday. There will be dropping temps, a chance of snow, and it looks like tomorrow will be the last 50+ day of the year unless December starts breaking records.

There is a slow moving storm that is in western WI right now. It is inching this way ever so slow, and should be here by tomorrow afternoon. As it inches east, there is a chance of rain daily until about Thursday, when it becomes a chance of rain or snow. There was some snow showing up on radar in SW WI about where the driftless area is. I am not sure if it is really snowing, or if it is a radar anomaly.

The storm will eventually bring some cold air behind it. The forecast for the weekend is for skies to clear up Friday and a clear weekend and a hi/lo of 24/40. Our normal hi/lo is 34/19 for Rhinelander. The long term outlook on the GFS keeps it cold through the first week of December.

One last item, a correction.. I was wrong about the decency ordinance thing. Apparently Thornton's is doing it anyway, Curve Inn has um.. cocktail waitresses. Whatever.

Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Wednesday November 18th, 2009

Greetings and welcome!

I know that a lot of people are heading north early, so my late week report is also early this week..

The last couple of cold nights have changed things a little. The ground is starting to freeze, as are the lakes. Monday after my report I was working outside, turned up an object, and found frost under it. I can still dig in the dirt pile, but sheltered areas are probably freezing up.

Yesterday my travels also took me to the north end of Caldron Falls Flowage. I was surprised to see a good skin of ice in the bays and along shore. Farther upstream it was almost all of the way across, only open on the sides like it does in spring. This is just first skin ice, but surprisingly it made it past late afternoon on a sunny 48 degree day, and probably had survived the previous one as well. A lot probably had to do with the high trees and low sun angle keeping it shaded.

The weather picture for the weekend is a decent one, if not a little on the warm side. Tonight and Thursday a storm system moves through the region and should bring some light rain and drizzle. Friday should bring clearing skies and then decent weather through Sunday and a hi/lo of about 48/33 daily. Our normal hi/lo is 38/22.

Next week's early outlook shows a chance of rain Sunday night-Tuesday, and temperatures similar to the weekend. After that the models show the storm circling back around to catch us a little occasional rain or snow through about Friday, and eventually some cooler air. The second weekend looks a lot like the first weekend, but maybe a little colder. I am skeptical about anything past about Monday.

It looks like a decent opening weekend forecast. It will be a little warmer than normal, but it won't be a repeat of that one year that was 70 & sunny.

I haven't been out much since our last visit, so I don't have much of a roadside wildlife report. The one sighting that I did have was a sow and two cubs by Thunder Mountain Ranch's Gate. I was surprised, thinking that the high teens and low 20s at night would have them heading for the den. The barstool theory that eventually evolved later was that with the drought year the berry crop was poor, and she was using the nice days to fatten up a little more.

Keep in mind that I haven't been out much. Usually you see more deer outside. I am reminded of the young lady in the local pub a few years ago.. Since she was dressed in orange, I asked how the hunting was. She said, "We have a deal with the deer.. they don't come into the bar, and we don't go into the woods." Alrighty then...

Again I will advise people to stop in town and pick up a local paper and local shopper. They are heavy with ads competing for orange people's business. Because the competition is stiff, there are some good specials and stuff like the free dinner buffet at Rapids Tuesday that would let a guy eat and drink pretty good for minimum cash.

That is about it for today. Have fun, be safe, and good luck hunting!

RJB

Monday November 16th, 2009

Greetings and welcome!

We had a cold morning this morning. Our overnight low was down to about 19 thanks to the clear skies overnight. We are expecting a sunny and about 50 degree day today and tomorrow. Our normal hi/lo is 38/22.

Last weekend was a busy one in the Northwoods. When I went to Crivitz Saturday morning it was quite busy, as were the roads between here and there. There were a lot of people bird hunting, bow hunting, or checking out cabins and sighting in guns for the gun deer season that opens next Saturday.

We have had warmer than normal weather the last few weeks, and the ground is not frozen yet. October was a wet one, but things have dried up a good bit since then, and people should not have abnormal conditions for mud. I was a little concerned about that a few weeks ago.

I have been seeing a few more deer than in years past standing out by the roads. I am not sure if my anecdotal sightings mean anything, but they are up a little. The DNR has been in the news on the radio warning people that it might not be a great year due to low fawn recruitment and other issues. The news has also been frequent with reports of some really spectacular bucks. I didn't catch where the one on the news was from, but golly.. the tines had to be a foot long and there were at least 14 of them.

There was also the incident where a stupid buck attacked a 600 pound cement elk and ended up dead about 20' away with a shattered skull. The DNR warden listed the caused of death as "Battle with lawn ornament-lost". LOL. Here is a link.

We have some events coming up for deer hunting season.

On the Friday before the season opens (11/20) there is the Annual Deer Hunters Booyah and Bake Sale at Jungle Jim's. It starts at 10:00 am, and is Sponsored by Silver Cliff Fire & Rescue Auxiliary.

The same day at Brown Jug in Athelstane..Annual Deer Hunters Bake Sale starts at 9:00 am Sponsored by American Legion Post 66 Auxiliary.

Opening Saturday the Church at A & C has their 8th Annual Craft Fair & Bake Sale - 9:30 am to 2:30 pm Sponsored by the Athelstane Fire Dept Auxiliary

The Dockside is having a hunter's auction Tuesday of deer hunting week, and Rapids Resort usually has a free hunter's buffet that day too. Both are big events.

The last Saturday of the hunting season (11/28) the Near North Trail Riders (snowmobile & ATV club) is having the drawing for their rifle raffle to raise money for trail grooming at the Northwoods Bar.They give away guns and it is a pretty good party too.

The guys that cash their paycheck and get all singles will be disappointed to hear that the town of Stephenson passed a decency ordinance that put a couple of places on Parkway out of the umm.. entertainment.. business. So far Green Lake Tap in Mountain is the closest place that I have seen an ad for.

There are also numerous ads in the local paper and shopper for the different bars and restaurants offering deer hunter's specials. It might be a good move to pick up one of each at the local store to see where the deals are. Some are pretty aggressive in their promotion and there are some really good food & drink deals out there.

At the moment the weather for the weekend looks 50/50. Saturday should be pretty normal with a cloudy day and a hi/lo of 47/34. Sunday looses a few degrees and there is a chance of rain as the day progresses.

There will be no 'tracking snow' for opening weekend anyway, though there is a chance of some for Sunday of the second weekend. Unless it freezes this week, the ground is not frozen. With nights in the teens like last night, don't rule it out, but it would be just getting started in most areas.

I have not had a chance to look into Thanksgiving buffets yet, but the usual list of places includes Twin Bridge Resort, Hilltop Resort, Jungle Jim's, and Rapids Resort.

Well it is sunny and pushing 50 outside, so I am going to go and dive into some fall work. After last night, winterizing the house is top of the list.

Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Tuesday November 10th, 2009

Greetings and welcome!

It is yet another beautiful day in the neighborhood. We have had a nice string of them in the last week or so, enough that I have lost count. I am liking the temp going back up into the 60s and the rain going away. It looks like the week will go that way until about Friday night when we get a chance of rain.

In response to a couple of customer calls, yes we are having a little trouble with the Internet this morning.

The network started going down about 3am, and it came back up partially by 10am. From what I can tell, it is not the local ISP, but rather the fiber network that supports them. I can still connect to local network principals, just not distant ones. This happened a few times when I had two different dial-up accounts, and everyone went down when the fiber network that supports the region does..

Anyway..

The nice weather is a reprieve from the wet and cold October. As soon as I finish here, I am off to play on one of my various outdoor projects. It is easy to get used to the nice weather, but that wouldn't be a good idea, the last I checked, we could be looking at colder weather and snow in a week or so.

As usual, the nice weather has brought out the Asian lady beetles. The fun part is, they and all of the other misguided bugs that hatch quickly perish when the sun sets and temps drop below freezing.

If I weren't such a busy guy, I would be doing plenty of hunting right now. Bow season is in it's prime. From what I heard last weekend, there were a lot of bird hunters shooting too. There were shots from all directions most of the day. It was almost like deer hunting of 10 or 20 years ago before the population increase of wolves, bears, and cougars.

I have been getting the itch to go and see how the lakes are doing for temperature. With our cold October, they should be a little ahead of the game. We have been getting down to or below freezing most nights, even with the recent string of 60+ degree days. My theory is that when the warm spell snaps, we should start seeing first ice form pretty quickly.

My hopes and predictions of our El Nino fading have been dashed, at least temporarily. The last 10 days or two weeks have seen some warming in the ENSO regions. In October Nino1 actually went into La Nina conditions, but has since bounced back.

One little qualifier though.. This is not like any other El Nino in several decades. The PDO is a multi-decedal 10-30 year oscillation that is similar to El Nino, but much larger, slower, and farther north in the Pacific. It has recently flipped to a cool phase. That affects the El Nino somewhat, and they are still researching how. The guess is that it reduces both strength and frequency, but there is still considerable discussion about it. The phenomenon is sometimes called El Nino Modoki. It is NOT a new kind of El Nino, just one that we haven't seen for a while.

My time has been dominated by work and education for work for the last few weeks, and I am looking forward to getting back outside today. The time challenge thing will get better soon. My education is nearly complete (always will learn more..), as are the first two of seven projects that came my way recently. I am delighted with the new software, my skills with it, the stuff that I can do, and especially about having plenty of work. I will probably have something to show off next week.

Eventually this site will look much much different, but with the magnitude of that undertaking, it will have to come at a little slower time. Most likely spring will bring a new look when I return from doing the big snow page.

Well, it is a beautiful sunny day out there, and I am going to go and be a part of it. Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Monday November 2, 2009

Greetings and welcome!

I have been a busy guy the past week or two, but it was time to stop in and say hello.

The storms of the past week or so have brought down a lot of leaves. The woods is starting to get that bare look again. Even the tamaracks are shedding needles.

We have also had a couple of inches of rain. For a while it was getting gloomy, with either rain or a dismal day outside. We have had a few nice days including yesterday.

Looking ahead at the 16 day GFS, it all looks pretty seasonal. There is a minor disturbance for about mid-week and that is about it for rain until after the weekend.

The deer are getting pretty silly now, and are common by the roads. We are getting into that prime bow season between the deer rutting and the leaves coming down.

The rain lifted the Peshtigo River into positive territory, and some regular private boaters took to the river last weekend. Why not? If you will paddle it in April, last weekend wasn't bad.

Our El Nino has increased in strength recently. For a while it was weakening, but is has started showing increasing temperature anomalies. It is still in the mild classification.

I read a couple of items in the Silver Cliff news that I want to pass on. Item one is that area towns could use more rescue squad volunteers. They have had some busy weekends that have stretched the area departments. Both residents and weekend people can help out.

Item two is that the town has rescinded permission to use Parkway Rd south as an ATV access route. Between Stephenson not allowing Parkway to be an connecting route and concerns from neighbors, the town and club agreed to close the access.

On the personal side.. My absence here has been for a good cause. I sent myself on a mission to update my skills as a web designer. My self-study has been intense and the topic of many really long days and nights. I have learned a tremendous amount in the last few weeks, and can do cool new stuff. It also showed me how much I have left to learn. It will be a long path, but well worth it.

In the meantime I had a lot of web design work that came in last week. I will be a busy boy for a while, and I am very happy about that, especially with the new stuff that I have learned. I will have a few new sites to show off soon. An upgrade here is also planned, but that will come once work slows down a little.

In the meantime I am planning on returning here late week, and I am working toward a Big Snow Page update late this week or early next week.

That is about it from here. Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Thursday October 22, 2009

Greetings and welcome!

Again I apologize for running off abruptly early this week. My work load lately has been pretty wild, and I had to go. This time I won't be interrupted, it is about 3:00am. I like working overnight, the phone isn't ringing, no one is at the door, and I don't have any distractions. So let's get to it.

Item one.. The rain. We did get hit with a pretty good storm over the last 24 hours. It registered at just over an inch so far in Athelstane. That sounds reasonable based on the hit and miss waves of heavy rain that came through.

The storm also had some snow behind it in the places to our north and west. Places like Rhinelander and Eagle River could see sub-inch accumulation as the storm exits. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few areas get more.

Today we should see a cloudy and windy day, but out of the rain. My 'good' day this week for outside work will be 46, cloudy and with 13-25mph winds.

Round two of the storm, is an associated low pressure area that again has some energy and moisture to work with. We should see rain start about Thursday night and possibly last well into Saturday. The storm is expected to track a little south of tonight's, and should have a little more cold air to work with.

We could see snow Friday night. The NWS put out a special weather statement saying that some areas north of a line from Rhinelander to Merrill could see as much as 6" if things line up right. We will be on the southeast end of that, and while we could see some white ground, it is not expected to be much at the moment.

There is concern that the wet heavy snow would add up on trees that still have leaves and bring down a lot of trees and branches. It is a valid worry, the inch or so last Monday started bowing trees a little. Getting 3-6 would matter. The last that I saw, they were backing off a little on the snow forecasts, mentioning the possibility, but taking a wait n see approach.

Speaking of snow, I am trying a Wordpress script on the Big Snow Page that was assembled yesterday. It is an experiment in that you can leave comments under my posts.

I added a cool gadget called Askimet that gives your e-mail address a credit rating. They have hundreds of thousands of blogs that see posts, all keyed to your e-mail addy. It takes about 10 minutes for a spammer to get blacklisted worldwide. The flip side is that I can let people who have had approved comments (on my page) post without waiting for my moderation or doing the account/logging in dance.

I have had some challenges in the past years trying new portals and software. The Big Snow Page is a high volume site with a mountain of information and links, and if there is a bug, It will pop up. Wordpress is a pretty mature platform, and I have seen it stand up to 15x the traffic that the BSP sees.

Something that I missed in my early week report is that when it was warm Sunday and Monday, the Asian Lady Beetles came out in force. Usually they like much warmer days, but this year they have to take what they can get.

On a ride to Crivitz a few days ago I was surprised to see how much nice color is still going on. A lot of maples, even the bright red ones, were hanging in there. It has been a strange year for colors. My ride down both A and Moonshine Hill Rd between here and Crivitz was very nice for so late in the season. There is the risk that these storms will hurry that along, only time will tell.

When I was cleaning up the right column recently I oopsed and erased the event calendar link. It is back. Speaking of events..

October 24, 2009 Amberg Town Hall &
Community Center 4th Annual Craft Show from 9am - 3pm
Sponsored by the American Legion Auxiliary Unit 428

October 25, 2009 Holiday Inn
Kelly Lake 17th Annual "Taste in Oconto County"
Home Respite Fundraiser from 1-4 pm

.Recently I have been having a hard time getting here on a regular basis. Now it is to the point that I am going to take a report or two off. I usually don't stay away very long, but i could use a break.

I have been considered for several web sites that needed some pretty advanced features. I am all for keeping up to date and doing some of the rich features that the new abilities offer, so I have been doing a lot of long hours at study and development with new software. The software is really expensive, and the learning curve is huge, but I am getting there at record speed. I already know a lot of the coding from doing other stores, blogs, CMS portals, wiki's, message boards, photo galleries, and so on, so I ain't skert. It is still quite intense and a huge challenge.

Between that, fall work, firewood, burnout, and a surprising number of new web sites to work on, I could use a little time away. I usually don't stay away long, even when I want to. Usually there is something going on that you will want to know about. For example, the storm for the weekend could need an update tomorrow if the snow chance/amount increases. We shall see.

Well, I am off to get back to my school work. Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Tuesday October 20th, 2009

Greetings and welcome!

It looks like we are in for a wet week this week. We have what some meteorologists refer to as a double barrel low pressure scenario. The models are showing the first storm coming early Wednesday and bringing a good bit of rain. The NAM 60 hour QPF shows us in the 1.5-1.75 band. The HPC almost agrees with their forecast of 1.25-1.5".

Thursday looks like we will get a little break, and then round two come Friday. That should bring 1-1.25" of rain, but it could track a little farther south, adding snow to the mix later in the storm. It looks like there could be light snow Friday night and Saturday.

Looking farther out on the GFS 16 day model there are a couple of significant cold spells showing up. The one for about November 4 would be memorable if it plays out as shown. It is 14 days out though. I will keep an eye on it.

When I rode to Wausaukee yesterday there were still some fall colors. There were some maples hanging on, and oaks ranged from green and yellow to dark brown and rust. The tamaracks are starting to get bright yellow now. Folks driving here from the south will have a good show on the way. We are past peak, but there is still color. Chris reported similar conditions between here and Antigo over the weekend.

I have to apologize for an abbreviated report today, but the challenges of the day are pulling me elsewhere.

Thank you to all of the people that I saw and met at Rapids last weekend. Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Friday October 16th, 2009

Greetings and welcome!

We have a sunny but cold start to our Friday today. It looks nice, but it is only 35 outside @ 10am. We should see 44 today, still way off of our normal high of 55.

The weekend looks nice for the most part. There is a second minor disturbance coming through later today and tonight that could bring a few sprinkles or flurries. We had the first one pass through yesterday and last night, but it didn't amount to much here. Once that clears out Saturday morning we should be in for a clear weekend and rising temperatures. Look for a high of about 45 Saturday and 55 Sunday.

For the past week or so we have been under the influence of a huge push of cold air out of Canada. As you will recall, it went so far south that it had upper 20s in Texas, and Rhinelander was 24 degrees colder than the normal high temp one day last week. That cold wave will finally come to an end over the weekend and into next week. Next week high temps should return to about normal levels.

People are talking about the winter, and I keep thinking what if.. What if this came in January when the normal high is about 5 degrees? That 24 degrees below normal would put our daytime high at -19 and how cold would that night get? With below normal temps all year and frequent excursions of cold waves into our region, is the somewhat far-fetched example all that far fetched?

The TV weather guys have been showing the seasonal prediction maps the past few days. They have us for a little bit warmer than normal for temps, and equal chances of above, below or normal precip. I assume that their predictions are based on a mild or moderate El Nino winter since the people that do those graphs are predicting that too.

The problem is, the El Nino seems to be breaking down. Recently there were some areas actually showing LaNina conditions in eastern Nino 1, and now in Nino 3 as well. Here is a look at the latest temp breakdowns for the El Nino related regions.

Only region 4 is not on a trend line to go neutral, or based on NINO 1+2, LaNina by December or January. The SOI is trending up, and the ElNino could rebound, but from my view in the cheap seats, I see it going neutral or LaNina.

My crystal ball is still at the pawn shop, but I am looking for a wild ride this winter with a lot of variability in our weather. As long as we get out of the cold and dry pattern we were in most of the year, I will be happier.

Our recent cold wave did a lot of cooling of the lands and waters. It is now getting to be that the roads are almost cold enough to hold show and freeze water. The NWS had a watch out this morning for icy bridges and black ice where it rained yesterday.

As long as we are doing road warnings, keep an eye peeled for deer. They are out by the roads pretty regularly now.

On the subject of deer, I got a tip in the e-mail the other day about the DNR meetings to extend deer seasons.. "These meetings only cover the DNR ideas not that of the Wisconsin Conservation Congress' (WCC) plan. It's different and was formed by an ad
hoc committee. You'll find it on the WCC website under calendar then minutes,then deer
2000 ad hoc. The State didn't wait for the WCC proposal before asking these hearing
dates."

Here is the page that he was referring to.. http://dnr.wi.gov/org/nrboard/congress/minutes/2009/deer2000finalvote.pdf

There are still fall colors around, but we are getting past peak for the early show. It will be a nice ride for those that visit from the south, and yes there certainly are still colors here.

The only event that I have on my calendar for the weekend is a sports show up in the UP..

October 17-18, 2009 Island Resort & Casino-Harris Michigan

UP Fall Sports Show
Sports Exhibits & seminars - Free admission

If you are in the neighborhood this weekend, stop by the Big Bear Outpost for ice cream. Being the end of the season, they are clearing out their inventory of premium hand dipped ice cream cheap. Get some to go too, they are discounting that significantly.

Well, there is a full day unfolding before me, so I am off to dive into it. Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Tuesday October 13th, 2009

SNOW!

Greetings and welcome!

We had some snow yesterday. At first it was just a few gently falling flurries. Eventually it added up to a little under an inch. The TV said Florence Co had as much as three inches.

It coated anything cold enough, grass trees, leaf piles and branches. I went out later last night to drive around and check it out, and it was pretty with all of the snow in the trees and a big clear sky full of stars. There were a few well sheltered spots that the snow actually stuck to the road a little, but I counted five small patches in a 20 mile ride, and only one was on asphalt.

Here are a few pics from this morning about 2 hours after sunrise. There was more snow before the sun started melting it.

I have a little thing that I do to figure out sun intensity. Looking at the calendar, we are about 70 days out from the December solstice. That many days on the other side of it would be about the beginning of March, and yes the sun is pretty hard on snow in the beginning of March.

It looks like our weather this week will continue to be from the other side of the solstice. Our normal hi/lo right now is 57/36. That puts Rhinelander's high of 33 yesterday at a sharp -24 off of normal. Friday looks like the warmest day of the work week, with a high of 45, still 13 degrees off of normal.

Friday also brings our next chance of precip, possibly snow. The timing isn't well defined in the models, so somewhere between Thursday night and Friday night we could see some minor light rain or snow.

Tim B e-mailed and asked when the meeting on the DNR changing the deer hunting seasons was. They are holding meetings statewide, but locally there are meetings in Crivitz and Rhinelander. Public comments and statements will be accepted beginning at 7 p.m. The following hearing locations and dates are scheduled:

October 14, Crivitz - Crivitz Village Hall, 800 Henriette Ave.
October 21, Rhinelander - James Williams Middle School, 915 Acacia Lane.

From what I can tell, they want to add a week to the beginning of the gun season, making it 16 days. It also looks like they want to push bow hunting into the second week of January, and add several late gun/muzzle loader season to December. Check more in depth here. It is the third item down.

The only event that I have on my calendar for the weekend is a sports show up in the UP..

Island Resort & Casino-Harris Michigan

UP Fall Sports Show
Sports Exhibits & seminars - Free admission

The fall color show is continuing. Friday when we went to Crivitz a lot of the area along Hwy A was spectacular. There are still colors around, though they may be a little past peak for some of the early leaves in some places. There are still a lot of aspens, oaks, and later trees coming with colors.

Well, I am off to go outside and play. Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Thursday October 8th, 2009

Greetings and welcome!

The weather outlook looks a lot different today than it did two days ago. We were looking for some rain today, but the forecast says that it will stay south. That might be a close one according to radar.

Behind this storm is a push of colder air that persists for the duration of the 16 day GFS forecast model. It will get cold for the weekend, and we are looking at a chance of our rain being snow for Saturday night and Tuesday.

Temps start declining from todays hi/lo of 53/37 to something along the lines of 45/27 for Saturday and Sunday, and then it drops a few more degrees for Monday. Next Wednesday we might actually see 50 again.

As far as the weekend rain, the NWS is looking for a chance of showers after 1pm Saturday. My maps are showing it coming about dark. It doesn't last long with Saturday night's outlook being partly cloudy and Sunday's being sunny.

Yesterday we went to Milwaukee and got a look at what people might see for fall colors on the way north for the weekend. Splashes of color start showing up about Manitowoc. About half way between there and Green Bay the colors got more obvious. From Bay north they kept getting better, and by 64 they were pretty nice. They have progressed in the eastern areas closer to home, and while there is still some green, the show is on.

When we were on 32 Monday the early stuff was thinning a little, the late stuff was coming in, and it was a good show. Tuesday we had almost an inch of rain and some wind, so I am not sure if anything changed there. Looking around the yard I didn't loose much color.

I have been seeing a lot more deer around. It is fall, and they get silly in fall and stand out in the roads. Be careful driving. Tuesday night I had a buck & doe out in the road that survived thanks to me being aware and E-stopping in time. The fun part is, they didn't want to move, and actually walked toward the truck. The horn didn't deter them, only a foot on the brake and a couple of quick jabs on the gas to make the truck 'grunt' impressed upon them that I might be a danger. It seems early for them to be running that stupid, but here we are.

I did a bit a couple of weeks ago about how 6 nice weeks in fall are really less than half of that. Man did I call that. Between the rain, business/work, and crappy days in general, I have gotten about 3 good days of work in outside. Now I am very much against the wall on a lot of stuff, and I have to make choices. Right now the priority is stuff like painting that needs to happen over 50ºF. That is today and tomorrow, or bust. Soon the list will include things that need to happen before the ground freezes, and then stuff that has to happen before snow. Fall is a challenge.

Well, it is light out, heading for 50, and not raining, so I am going to run along. Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Tuesday October 6th, 2009

Greetings and welcome!

Last weekend did not turn out quite as nice as we had hoped. The back of the storm strengthened and brought us more rain than expected. Saturday turned out ok, it was a wet start and damp day as expected, and it didn't rain on me until almost sunset.

The surprise came Sunday when it rained. It was supposed to be in the upper 50s and dry. As it turned out, we had waves of showers that hit and missed, and ranged from mist to moderate downpours.

I am going to type the word rain a lot today. It started raining last night, and today we have a very dark and rainy day. It is a big and powerful storm, and it will bull's eye us. We could see between 1-2" of rain by tomorrow. There is also some wind and T-storms associated with the storm, both of which I am hearing outside now.

We will get a little break in the action before the next storm. That one will probably hit about Thursday evening. It again is a big storm, and will probably bring significant precip and some wind. It is expected to clear up sometime Friday.

I have my questions about the weekend forecast, but at the moment it looks pretty decent, though probably on the cold side. There is a very powerful storm (980!) showing up in the models for the weekend. While it is expected to stay north of here, we will be in it's periphery. Not only will we see some cold air pulled down behind the storm, I'd be surprised if we didn't see at least some moisture come our way. Based on the upper temperature maps, it would probably be snow flurries.

When we went to Wabeno and Lakewood yesterday the leaves were very nice. Some of the early stuff was thinning out, some of the later stuff was coming in. I am sure that there will be color for the weekend. What the question is, is how much of the early color will be felled by our rain and wind from the two storms this week. We probably won't know until Friday. Either way there will be color.

We do have some events this weekend. The Firelane Bar and Grill is having a hay ride with the Near North Trail Riders Saturday. If I can escape, that is probably where I will be. Thornton's is also having a hay ride, and a band Saturday night. There is also a cancer walk/run in Crivitz, and a holiday craft fair in Pembine. See the event calendar for details.

Well the distractions are almost constant now, so I am off to deal with some of those. Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Friday October 2nd, 2009

Fall Color Update

I covered some ground to the east and north today and have an important update. My travels took me first east down C and Perch Lake Rd to Wausaukee. All of those areas has splashes of color, but are not at peak this weekend. They still have a lot to look forward to in color change. We took C back to Athelstane, and the colors had progressed a little more.

Out of Athelstane we took Eagle River Rd. There the colors started getting better at about Firelane Rd.

We took Eagle River to Parkway and headed north. Once we were in the beech forest it started getting lighter, but probably still not quite to peak.

We took Camp 5 Rd west to Harper..

And Harper to Old J. This is just east of the Rat River on Harper..

The areas that I saw earlier in the week were in their glory, and I was quite surprised to see how far behind things were to the east and close north.

My route was C from C & F to 32 north through Wabeno to 52 toward Lilly and Antigo. That is a spectacular ride. Hwy 32 should be nice this weekend too.

Some of the difference was geographical, some was related to what tree species was in the area. The hot ticket is probably maple and beech forests a little west of here.

Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Early Report

Greetings and welcome!

It is a wet one today. I checked the bucket and as of 11:30am I had just over 1/2". Looking at the radar it looks like the main line of precip is just about through. There is a little scattered stuff behind the line, but not much. The back of the storm could bring more rain later, but the big stuff is about done.

The outlook for tomorrow isn't perfect, but it isn't too bad. Look for a cloudy day and a high of 51. The NWS has a 50% chance of rain, but only a 1/10th of an inch all day.The HPC agrees on the 0.1" of rain, as does the GFS and NAM. That sounds like a scattered shower if that. Last Saturday's forecast was similar and it turned into a bluebird day. Sunday looks nice with clearing skies and a high of 58, and no rain.

The leaves are very nice right now. I am going to head out for a ride later to try and catch a few pictures. I do think that they are at peak right now. It would be a good weekend to come see the fall colors.

Wednesday night was colder than Tuesday night, and we did have a good frost and freeze. Thursday morning the ground was indeed sugar coated in the meadow and pond bowl. Steve at Athelstane Weather saw 26, Rhinelander reported an official 28, again with a reading of 23 at a remote station, Wabeno showed a low of 28. It was cold.

For events this weekend ..

1st Annual Wausaukee Fall Festival. They will be lined up along Main St with merchants and 8am - 4pm - Food & Refreshments, Music, Kids' Games, Sidewalk Sale, Farmers Market, Rummage and Bake Sale

The Lakewood Zoo is having a haunted October with hay rides, and the haunted zoo all month.

Cramer's Brown Jug in Athelstane is having a classic car show.

Don't let the weather forecast scare you off of visiting the area this weekend. The big part of the storm has passed and it looks like it is weakening, possibly even a little ahead of schedule. Saturday should get better as it goes, and Sunday will be nice. The leaves are really prime.

Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB

9/30/09 Wednesday Update

Hot topics- Cold last night and tonight, fall color update, weekend weather, events update

Greetings and welcome!

It did get cold last night. Athelstane Weather had a reading of 32.4. I was surprised that when I woke up just after sunrise that the world wasn't sugar-coated in frost. It looks like we had some clouds move in overnight and limit radiational cooling somewhat. Here are some temps from around the region from the NWS.

HAYWARD 22
ARBOR VITAE 26
EAGLE RIVER 24
LAND O LAKES 24
PHILLIPS 27
TOMAHAWK 24
RHINELANDER 23
MERRILL 21
ANTIGO 23

They are expecting widespread frost again tonight, but probably not as cold of temps in some places as last night. The normal low for Rhinelander is 40 and the record is 24. Theoretically the 23 last night was a record, But I have a hunch that it came in from a remote station. The official climate report has the low there at 28 for last night. It is still cold.

Yesterday we took a ride to Antigo. Since it was so windy we took Hwy 52 out of Wabeno and over to Antigo. The fall colors were spectacular. The area was alive with red, yellow and orange as the beech and maple trees were just coming into full glory.

Personally I think that is the best fall show, and it should be prime time for this weekend. Some of the reds were very deep, some were in transition between orange and purple red, and some were as bright as a brand new blaze orange jacket.

We were going to come back on 64 and check colors there, but between the winds buffeting the truck on 64 and the soon to rut deer running out in the road, we came back the scenic route. Based on what I saw last week, the ride up 32 will be nice.

These are just the early colors, there is a late wave too, that is still green now. Those are the oaks and aspens that start much later. Right now the really bright leaves are starting, as are the really nice patchwork hillsides. If you want my opinion, both this weekend and next weekend will be nice. This weekend is probably the headliner act. It is spectacular right now.

Some leaf color tips..

If there isn't a lot of color where you are, go seek some out. If it isn't started yet, head north. If the really early stuff is done, head south.

There are some nice forest roads all over the area. Use them. That is where you might come into some of those stunning magazine cover shots of the blaze orange trees arching over the road. They clear the brush around the highways and town roads too much for that effect on main roads.

Rain is good, as are clouds. No I am not BSing you. A damp start and a cloudy day makes the color much more vivid. At times it will light up the whole forest in orange as you walk through it. Sunnier days tend to wash out the colors and give it a brighter background to contrast with, offering less drama from the leaves. A cloudy day gives it a gray pallet as contrast, and colors are much more vivid.

Speaking of cloudy days with damp starts, a few of you want to make plans for the weekend but are hesitant because of the weather. We do have a big storm coming late week. The latest has it coming overnight Thursday night and lasting into the weekend. Friday night looks wet. Saturday is not such a lock, and Sunday looks ok.

The models continue to show the storm not affecting us as bad as could be Saturday. Here are the latest GFS and NAM plots for Saturday. Note that the times are in UTC. Here we are GMT-5 in daylight savings time, so 18UTC is really 1pm Saturday.

These are 6 hour plots, in other words, the QPF from 1pm Saturday to 7pm Saturday is expected to be less than 0.1". It is showing the storm with a central pressure of 1000 and 1004 and eventually 1008mb, suggesting that the storm that once had a pressure of 996, is in the process of fizzling out. That happened last weekend and Saturday was one spectacular day.

I am not trying to sell something here, just saying wait and see, it might not be as bad as it sounds, especially if the timing of the storm advances or it weakens on the way here.

We do have an event to add to the list thanks to Brenda J e-mailing me, the Car Show at Cramer's Brown Jug. We have made it there a few times, and it is a fun little show. They have a lot of nice cars, a DJ and a fun crowd. It was also free for spectators.

Well, it is sunny, over 50, and not raining or blowing 30mph winds, so I am off to go and tackle some outside work. I will return late week with the weather and fall color update.

Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Tuesday September 29th, 2009

Greetings and welcome!

As happens, the weekend was not quite as predicted in weather. We had a line of rain go through Friday night, followed by a damp morning and beautiful day Saturday. Sunday wasn't bad, but the wind started picking up later in the day.

Monday and last night the storm hit, and it was indeed powerful. There were fitful waves of rain and some really strong wind gusts. We seem to be out of the heavy weather now, and the cold is setting in.

The rain did not add up to much. Athelstane Weather reported 0.24" yesterday and the USGS reported 0.3" by Kosir's.

The wind really got going. Athelstane reported peak gusts of 44 yesterday and 26 today. Yesterday's peak wind gusts around the region were; Rhinelander 37mph, Green Bay 46 mph, Wausau 48mph

As far as cold, Tomahawk won yesterday with a hi/lo of 49/40. The overnight low went to Land O Lakes at 38, and Rhinelander at 39. We saw 44 overnight outside and 61 inside. Yes I started the wood burner.

We have a lot more cold coming. A storm as strong as the one that just passed will bring a lot of cold air behind it. The NWS has widespread frost and hard freeze warnings out for tonight and probably tomorrow night. Temps are expected to drop into the mid to upper 20s tonight and probably tomorrow night as well. Wednesday night they are looking for 32, and probably more frost.

Today seems to be calming down as the morning progresses. It could actually make 50 today, but the winds will go 15-25mph sometimes. Wednesday and Thursday the wind calms down, the skies will clear, and we could see 60 degrees. Late week there is another big storm coming, though there is some question on how it will affect the weekend.

The GFS is showing a powerful storm coming up from the south in time for the weekend. It could hit us pretty good, or it could fizzle out. Given the recent history of the latter, and the GFS leaning that way, I am hoping that will be the case again. I know you guys like to make weekend plans early in the week, but wait n see on this one. It could go either way.

With all of the talk of frost, freeze, and cold, eventually the word snow will come up. Yep. Here we are. It will get cold enough tonight that if there is some available moisture, the upper air will be cold enough to form snow. Chances are the moisture will be long gone.

We are in for a parade of storms over the next two weeks. They all have big swaths of cold air being pulled down behind them. Eventually in the next storm or three it will bring our first flakes of snow.

The GFS model is very active with large scale storms over the 16 day outlook. I would encourage you to check it out. If it were January I'd be pretty happy with the forecast. In fall, maybe not so much. Here is a link.

The high winds didn't hurt he fall colors too much around my yard. Some of the really early stuff lost leaves, but there is still color to be had. I am expecting a good show this weekend, possibly the best of the year. There is still a lot of green out there. I will get a better bite on that later today. I am planning a trip to Antigo, and I will get to see that and the 32 corridor.

We have another big bear taken by hunters this fall. A 13 year old hunter from Porterfield bagged a 695 black bear in the Town of Grover on 9/19. He had a picture in the paper, and it was a nice big bear. Congrads to the hunter and the people that handed down their tags for him.

The only event that we have for this weekend is the 1st Annual Wausaukee Fall Festival. They will be lined up along Main St with merchants and 8am - 4pm - Food & Refreshments, Music, Kids' Games, Sidewalk Sale, Farmers Market, Rummage and Bake Sale

The Lakewood Zoo is also having a haunted October with hay rides, and the haunted zoo all month.

That is about it for now. Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Friday September 25th, 2009

Greetings and welcome!

There is a storm heading this way for tonight and Saturday. The first wave looks pretty active on radar, and will likely bring rain tonight.

The NWS is giving it a 60% chance of rain of Friday night and a 50% chance Saturday. They have Friday night's QPF at 1/10"-1/4", and less that 1/10" for Saturday. The HPC QPF is in agreement, showing a mere 1/10th of an inch from 6am Saturday to 6am Sunday.

The issue is that the low pressure area is expected to be cut off from the Gulf moisture and some of the upper level energy that was once forecast. The HPC QPF actually has the rain clearing out about noon Saturday. That might be optimistic, but a guy can hope. Sunday looks potentially decent with a high of 65, but as the next storm approaches, the winds could pick up to 15-25mph and eventually more rain is expected.

The storm showing up in the models for Sunday night to Tuesday is a powerful one. It is a storm out of southern Canada that has the lowest central pressure that we have seen in quite a while. A good storm is often a 998, 996 or 992Mb central pressure. This one sports a 988, big stuff. It has a sharp pressure and temperature gradient, and plenty of moisture and upper air support for energy.

So?

Right now it looks like the HPC is in for 0.5-1.0" of rain between Sunday night and Tuesday. With the sharp gradients and close proximity of the low, we can expect some strong winds. Here is the fun part. The models are showing some pretty cold air getting pulled in behind the storm and the zero C line reaching all of the way to southern Wisconsin Monday night into Tuesday. There is a chance that we will see a few snow showers or flurries behind the storm.

It looks like a cold start to the week. Right now the NWS forecast is for a hi/lo of 54/39 Monday and 60/32 Tuesday. The forecast discussion mentions "HIGH TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN CWA WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
50S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY." and "ALTHOUGH DROPPED WEDNESDAY MORNING
LOWS TO NEAR 30...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME UPPER 20S
BEFORE IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH
AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...COULD SEE SOME DECENT WINDS
ALSO."

Rain, high winds and 20's and 40s? Frost and freeze?

Not so Mr Yuk is the fall color outlook for this weekend. Yesterday on my ride to Crivitz there were a lot of red maples in full glory. There were nice splashes of orange and yellow as well, and a lot of green. It is an early show, but a good one in places.

The TV said that the colors were a week late this year. I'm thinkin' more like 2-3 if the maples are just going off. Some years we see those start around Labor Day. There is more show to come, a weekend out should be good with the later colors.

The weekend event list from Tuesday's update appears to be complete with the exception of a horse trail ride with Desparado Ranch in Mountain. The ranch is on 32 just north of the Green Lake Tap.

Well, since today is the last day that might get close to 70 for a while, I am headed out to tackle some outside work. Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Speaking of playing, did you guys see the video of the guy on the water slide? Yowza! I am not sure if it is amazing trickery or just amazing, but check it out. Unreal!

I set up a message board for the ATV riders. It is at http://www.northerndestinations.com/atv. The way that I see it, I get busy in the summer and have a hard time keeping up. You guys know a lot more about what is happening than I do. I will keep it up to date as much as I can with info that I get, but it is up to you guys to add the rest. A hot tip, when you register, use a name that is ATV related. We get a lot of spammers, and have to try and seperate riders from spammers by the user name or local e-mail address.